Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseSolve at least 3 of {P2/5 (non-APMO), P4 (APMO)} 83.4%Führend unter 20 Optionen
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 21 Stunden
Veraltet30. Juli 26, 02:08 UTC30. Juni 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which of the following will I achieve in the 2026-2027 TST Cycle?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegeln
I am part of the 2027 TST.
- A solve is counted as a 5, 6, or 7 on a problem.
- Getting swept means 0 solves; sweeping means getting 3 solves (5 on APMO).
- See @/vincentWang/will-i-qualify-for-rmm-2027 for RMM 2027 qualification market.
- TST 2026: 700 700 720 77707 270776
- TSTST 2026: 770 770 770
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 230.755,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 77.061 €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 109.481,6 €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2905,6 €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Solve at least 3 of {P2/5 (non-APMO), P4 (APMO)} mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle? entschieden?
- Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle? soll am 30. Juni 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I am part of the 2027 TST.