Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
None of the above happens by 2500 47.9%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet2. Jan. 24, 21:44 UTC31. Dez. 00, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the following events all occur by December 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsKnights Templar restored as a personal prelature of the pope during Pope Leo's papacy?
Manifold Markets⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2026? (15 DONE)
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
PolymarketVatican III in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.
- Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
- The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
- If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".
Offene Märkte
ReligionPOLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 33.383,3 €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle+1.9pt6%
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa+2.0pt5%
- Pietro Parolin4%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 122.333,8 €
KALSHIWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- Peru99%
- Argentina95%
- Uruguay92%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 179.804,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 708,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- —
POLYMARKETVatican III in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Brigham Young University allow students to wear beards by 2030
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1421,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- —
- Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
- Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- Knights Templar restored as a personal prelature of the pope during Pope Leo's papacy?
- Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first??
- Manifold Markets bewertet None of the above happens by 2500 mit 48% (Stand: 20. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first? entschieden?
- Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first? soll am 31. Dezember 2500 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.