Manifold MarketsKein KYCAktuelle Community-PrognoseAnother pope uses the papal name Peter 20.9%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 28 Tagen
Veraltet2. Jan. 24, 21:4431. Dez. 00, 22:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Another pope uses the papal name Peter21%
Verwandte Märkte
Will the roman catholic church permit the ordination of trans male priests by 2030?
263 €Ja: 8.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
123,6 €Ja: 10.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Vatican III in 2026?
0 €Ja: 9%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?
869,4 €Ja: 4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
0 €Ja: 58%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027?
0 €Peru: 84%
KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
Regeln
I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.
- Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
- The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
- If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".