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Daten vom 19.10.2026, 17:35 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseA model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools) 100%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet16. Okt. 25, 15:09 UTC1. Jan. 35, 15:46 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
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A new highly-detailed operationalization of AGI has been proposed by Hendrycks et al. based on the standard that "AGI is an AI that can match or exceed the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult" (www.agidefinition.ai/).
- Their definition is inspired by Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory and calculate a model’s “AGI Score” as a composite of ten equally-weighted cognitive categories.
- GPT-4 is judged to score 27% according to the definition, and GPT-5 is scored at 58%.
- This market resolves YES for each event which occurs BEFORE the first date when an AI system, with an AGI Score eventually judged to be above 95%, is deployed and accessible to customers external to the AI developer for commercial or consumer purposes.
- The AGI Score would either need to be judged by the authors, or by a third party in a manner credibly commensurate with the original evaluations of GPT-4 and GPT-5.
- The score would need to be announced within 6 months of model release.
