Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2028 27.9%Führend unter 9 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+16.8 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet6. Sept. 26, 23:44 UTC1. Jan. 37, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill US gross federal debt reach $41 trillion before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US national debt reach $50 trillion by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026?
FutuurUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketWill the US National Debt exceed $47 Trillion by the end of FY 2030?
ForecastExRegeln
This market will resolve to the first Record Date on which the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States reaches or exceeds $50,000,000,000,000.00 ($50 trillion USD).
- The official source of truth is the "Debt to the Penny" dataset published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Fiscal Data website: Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data .
- Metric: The specific data field to determine the resolution is Total Public Debt Outstanding.
- Resolution Date: The market will resolve to the exact date listed in the "Record Date" column of the first Treasury entry displaying a value of $50,000,000,000,000.00 or greater.
- The U.S. national debt officially crossed the $40 trillion threshold on August 18, 2026, several years ahead of initial Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections.
- This rapid escalation has been fueled by persistent budget deficits, high interest rates, and growing mandatory spending.
Offene Märkte
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 323.760,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 25.329 €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 523.015,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 22.025,7 €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4356,6 €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2028 mit 28% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? entschieden?
- When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? soll am 1. Januar 2037 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to the first Record Date on which the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States reaches or exceeds $50,000,000,000,000.00 ($50 trillion USD).