Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2050 or later 17.5%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet12. Okt. 23, 15:05 UTC2. Jan. 50, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
This market will resolve to the choice containing the year in which the New World Screwworm is eradicated from South America.
- This market is cause agnostic; if it happens via gene drive, larvae irradiation, pesticide application, etc it will resolve yes.
- I define "eradicated" as a documented reduction in screw worm infections by atleast 10000x compared to the current (2023) number of infections.
- Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
- See this post for context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JWuPdMaPiNy7AD3AX/potentially-actionable-opportunity-eliminating-the-new-world
- [link preview]
