Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2027 48%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
20
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+15.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet5. Jan. 26, 08:30 UTC31. Dez. 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.
- A "crash" is understood to be a more than 15% downward correction in the market within a week where the Economist (as proxy for good punditry) writes that this is mostly or exclusively due to changing believes in AI and AI-fuelled valuations.
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 269.839,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 199.899,7 €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 107.516,9 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 85.006,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 65.253,9 €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will the AI bubble crash??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2027 mit 48% (Stand: 22. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will the AI bubble crash? entschieden?
- When will the AI bubble crash? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will the AI bubble crash? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.