Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNot in 2026 22.5%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-12.3 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet10. Okt. 26, 20:17 UTC1. Jan. 27, 06:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by which date?
PolymarketWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsMarathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
@Bayesian resolved @/Bayesian/will-i-solve-an-unsolved-math-probl-5ZR0n0LOlE on Sept. 25, 2026 (earning himself Ṁ19,822) but has not yet revealed what problem(s) he solved.
- This market will resolve based on the day he names at least one problem he solved in a comment on that market.
- If we reach Jan 1, 2027 without an answer, it will resolve "the named outcome."
- Zvi's house rules apply: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ge3Jf5Hnon8wq4xqT/zvi-s-manifold-markets-house-rules