Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNever, or later than 2050. 54.5%Führend unter 5 Optionen
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48
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
7d-Änderung
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Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet3. Nov. 23, 02:23 UTC1. Jan. 50, 14:59 UTC
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Context: In the recent Dwarkesh Patel interview, Paul Christiano gave an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere a chance of 15% the named outcome and 40% the named outcome.
- Is this plausible?
- Question: When we will have an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere?
- Notes: - I will not bet in this market. - Answers will resolve at the date is hit, or we develop AI. - I make rulings on my markets based on the spirit of the question, not the strict rules as written.
