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Manifold Markets bewertet 2030 or later mit 95.6% (Stand: 26. Oktober 2026).

What year will the majority of new cars sold in Europe be "battery electric" (BEV)?

EuropaOne-Off4J

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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 05:23 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4

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2030 or later 95.6%

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30. Aug. 22, 20:43 UTC31. Dez. 30, 22:59 UTC

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This resolves according to the number published by ACEA, like this one: https://www.acea.auto/figure/fuel-types-of-new-passenger-cars-in-eu/

In 2021 the number for BEV was 9.1%, up from 1% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020.
The EU have decided to ban the sale of new fossil fueled cars from 2035 so presumably that will be the last possible year this can resolve to, but considering how fast BEVs have risen it may well be a majority much earlier.
UPDATE: The number for 2022 was 12.1%
The number for 2023 was 14.6%
The number for 2024 was 13.6%