Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Anthropic 19%Führend unter 26 Optionen
Anthropic 19%Prognostiker
52
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet19. Dez. 22, 22:25 UTC1. Jan. 31, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?
PolymarketWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
PolymarketWhich AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?
PolymarketFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketWill any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
2022 would resolve as OpenAI, Stability.AI, Deepmind
- Based on social media buzz, search trends, etc. — i.e. purely on buzz/prestige
- 50/30/20 resolution to the most impactful in public opinion during the year
