Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNo genocide, but non-incitement breaches of the convention 28.5%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet22. Aug. 25, 13:55 UTC1. Jan. 40, 14:52 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
South Africa rate decision in November
KalshiSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
PolymarketSouth Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q3 2026
KalshiWill South Africa become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack South Africa before end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWhen will South Africa collapse?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves when the ICJ issues its final merits Judgment in Case 192, “Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v.
- Israel).” Source for resolution: the ICJ case page (Judgment document once posted). https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)
- Exactly one option resolves Yes, using this precedence:
- Genocide — If the Court finds Israel internationally responsible for committing genocide under Article II (by its organs/agents or conduct attributable to the state), this option resolves Yes; all others No. Resolution is based solely on the final Judgment’s dispositive paragraphs. https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192 (icj-cij.org)
- the named outcome — If the Court finds any breach other than Article III(c) (e.g., failure to prevent or punish genocide under Article I, complicity Art.