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Manifold Markets bewertet Discovery of novel concept in mathematics mit 73% (Stand: 21. September 2026).

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

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Discovery of novel concept in mathematics 72.9%-12.7pt

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Resolves on January 1st 2030 to the set of answers which are analogous to "move 37" in the context of AI and/or LLMs trained using reinforcement learning.

These answers must describe emergent behavior in AI/LLMs made public knowledge after January 1st 2025, which become topics of significant interest and debate (similar to the discussion over "move 37").
Inspired by this tweet from Karpathy:
[image]https://x.com/karpathy/status/1884336943321997800

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What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

12.7 Pkt. (24h)One-OffKI3J

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Discovery of novel concept in mathematics 72.9%-12.7pt

Führend unter 5 Optionen

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

7d-Änderung

-12.7 pts

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden

Veraltet

29. Jan. 25, 16:28 UTC1. Jan. 30, 22:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Verwandte Märkte

Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Kalshi

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Polymarket

Next Claude Opus released by which date?

Polymarket

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Kalshi

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Polymarket

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Manifold Markets

Regeln

Resolves on January 1st 2030 to the set of answers which are analogous to "move 37" in the context of AI and/or LLMs trained using reinforcement learning.

These answers must describe emergent behavior in AI/LLMs made public knowledge after January 1st 2025, which become topics of significant interest and debate (similar to the discussion over "move 37").
Inspired by this tweet from Karpathy:
[image]https://x.com/karpathy/status/1884336943321997800

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL??: Manifold Markets bewertet Discovery of novel concept in mathematics mit 73% (Stand: 21. September 2026).
Wann wird What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL? entschieden?: What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
Wie wird What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL? abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves on January 1st 2030 to the set of answers which are analogous to "move 37" in the context of AI and/or LLMs trained using reinforcement learning.

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

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