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What organization will first create superintelligence?
Manifold MarketsWhich company will create AGI first?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI create the first AGI?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
I'm defining AGI as an algorithm that can do any human white collar job.
- If things get complicated I might resolve if a single algorithm can perform better than humans on all the most common AI benchmarks in text, vision, and audio.
- The common LLM benchmarks: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard
- The most common vision tasks:
- https://scale.com/blog/best-10-public-datasets-object-detection
- And the Audio Tasks / Datasets mentioned here:
