Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030??

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Wann wird Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? entschieden?

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.

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25. Sept. 23, 00:20 UTC1. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC

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Resolves YES if by the creator's best judgement, a Elon-Musk-controlled company creates an AGI by 2030 before any other company.

Tesla AI and xAI are the main AI labs to monitor, but any Elon-controlled company counts.
Also resolves YES if a nonprofit or government program led by Musk creates the first AGI by 2030, or if Elon Musk personally develops the first AGI.
Resolves NO if a non-Musk organization creates AGI first by 2030 or if AGI does not exist by 2030.
Judgement on whether a model constitutes AGI will be at the discretion of the creator, who will take into account benchmark performance, expert opinion, and any other evidence deemed to be credible.