Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Trump -> Stay 81.6%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
32
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet27. Jan. 24, 15:17 UTC2. Dez. 28, 23:01 UTC
Trends
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketTrump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
The first half resolves based on the US president after inauguration day 2025.
- The second half resolves based on the actions of the US president during their four year term of office (2025-2029).
- An attempt to leave includes any attempt to send a notice of denunciation under article 13, regardless of whether it is found to be legally valid, and regardless of whether the one year waiting period expires.
- It also includes attempts to leave without invoking that article, such as invoking a fundamental change or circumstances, a material breach, domestic law, annulment, etc. It includes any actions of the executive branch of government, plus any actions of the legislative or judicial branch that are at the direction of the US President.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Trump -> Stay mit 82% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO entschieden?
- Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO soll am 2. Dezember 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The first half resolves based on the US president after inauguration day 2025.