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Aktuelle Community-Prognose
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Führend unter 7 Optionen
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Prognostiker
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Veraltet9. Sept. 24, 08:01 UTC30. März 29, 15:59 UTC
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Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.