Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose3 parties 41.3%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet22. Sept. 25, 18:35 UTC22. März 29, 19:31 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
Manifold MarketsWill the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiRegeln
Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).
- Resolves to the option representing the minimum number of mainstream parties needed to form a majority coalition (>50% of Bundestag seats).
- Examples: - After the election in early 2025, the market would have resolved to "2 parties" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition was possible. - If there were an election held today that matched current polling (September 2025), the market would resolve to "the named outcome" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition would not be possible, but a CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens coalition would.
- Definition of "mainstream" Parties:
- Included as "mainstream": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens
- Not included as "mainstream": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party) Other parties will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum
Offene Märkte
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-81.6pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.7pt0%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 957.304,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 760.707,9 €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.1%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet 3 parties mit 41% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) entschieden?
- Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) soll am 22. März 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).