Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 90.8%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet23. Juli 25, 09:03 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
Manifold Markets1GW AI training run before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
see https://epoch.ai/trends#compute.
- At market creation, the most recent update put grok 3 at 5e26 FLOP.
- This market will resolve to epoch's estimate if it is available at time of market close.
- If unavailable, the most sensible estimate at that time will be used.
- Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Distributed training runs are not relevant to this market at 2e27 FLOP - only centralized training runs count.