Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 90.8%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet23. Juli 25, 09:03 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold Markets1GW AI training run before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
see https://epoch.ai/trends#compute.
- At market creation, the most recent update put grok 3 at 5e26 FLOP.
- This market will resolve to epoch's estimate if it is available at time of market close.
- If unavailable, the most sensible estimate at that time will be used.
- Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Distributed training runs are not relevant to this market at 2e27 FLOP - only centralized training runs count.
