Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.7%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet6. Dez. 25, 20:12 UTC1. Jan. 28, 20:08 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
Manifold MarketsVaccination program for Classical Swine Fever (Hog Cholera) in a Nordic Country before Christmas Eve 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/
- This market will resolve Yes if, before 2028, Spanish authorities conclude that this outbreak of African swine fever most likely came from a leak from a Spanish lab.
- Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this market to resolve Yes.
- If the outbreak is determined to be caused by foreign actors (e.g., biowarfare from another country), this market will resolve No. Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple authorities scenario clarification:
- If MAPA/EUVET scientists conclude it's likely a lab leak → resolves YES
Offene Märkte
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt97%
- Yes+0.3pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 35.620,9 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5183,7 €
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 83.504,6 €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 864.245,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 915.756,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1507,6 €
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4192,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Is African swine fever in Spain a lab leak??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Is African swine fever in Spain a lab leak? entschieden?
- Is African swine fever in Spain a lab leak? soll am 1. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Is African swine fever in Spain a lab leak? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/