Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2030+ or never 71.5%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
60
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet26. Okt. 23, 18:35 UTC2. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAre we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter".
- The declaration has to be serious and not in jest - i.e. an April 1st joke on Twitter wouldn't count.
- The declaration can be made on Zvi's Twitter, Substack or any other social media platform reliably known to be controlled by Zvi.
- This market will resolve to N/A if Zvi stops being active on social media for a period of at least 6 months.
