Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2030+ or never 71.5%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
60
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet26. Okt. 23, 18:35 UTC2. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter".
- The declaration has to be serious and not in jest - i.e. an April 1st joke on Twitter wouldn't count.
- The declaration can be made on Zvi's Twitter, Substack or any other social media platform reliably known to be controlled by Zvi.
- This market will resolve to N/A if Zvi stops being active on social media for a period of at least 6 months.