Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 96.6%
Prognostiker
49
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert17. Mai 24, 08:51 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiWill there be an xkcd about AI in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be polling about AI voting advice in 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill MNX commission a new longform piece about AI by a Manifold user before November?
Manifold MarketsContingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
Same as https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint?r=TWF4aW1lUmljaGU, but about the year 2026.
- Quote: """ Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter
- Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it. """
- [link preview]