Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2027 66.3%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet12. Dez. 25, 11:01 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the automation rate reported on the Remote Labor Index leaderboard, defined as the percentage of projects where an AI's deliverable is judged at least as good as the human standard—whether a "reasonable client" would accept the work.
- The market resolves to the year in which the RLI automation rate first reaches or exceeds 80%, as reported on the official leaderboard at https://scale.com/leaderboard/rli.
- If the automation rate never reaches 80% by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "the named outcome."
- The Remote Labor Index is a benchmark that empirically measures the capability of AI agents to perform real-world, economically valuable remote work by evaluating AI agents on a broad, multi-sector collection of end-to-end projects sourced from professional freelance platforms, providing a direct comparison of AI agent performance against professional human-produced deliverables.
- As of the latest evaluation, the maximum automation rate across frontier AI agent frameworks is 2.5% on RLI projects.