Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2030-2039 41%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet25. März 25, 01:15 UTC1. Jan. 00, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In what year will Al take 90% of human jobs?
Manifold MarketsWill Al take 25% of human jobs before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill AI take 50% of human jobs before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Al take 25% of human jobs before 2040?
Manifold MarketsCPI in October
KalshiPennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026
KalshiRegeln
Resolution Criteria:
- For a given date to be resolved to YES at least one of the following must occur:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
- If that number goes from 40 hours/week to 20 hours/week or less that will not matter to the resolution of this question.