Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:28 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 82.4%
Prognostiker
420
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet20. Feb. 23, 22:38 UTC2. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
Manifold MarketsPossible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Manifold MarketsWill Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenRouter AI token usage in October
KalshiRegeln
Resolves positively if Marcus (or someone else fulfilling his role) can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.
- This won't resolve positively if he has to use bizarre hacking-like tricks, for example things equivalent to the SolidGoldMagikarp token.
