Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseOther 84%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet16. Okt. 25, 09:50 UTC1. Jan. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Trigger for the market popping will be based on my subjective experience as a consultant dealing with tech start-ups and established businesses every day.
- Significant movement of tech stocks tied to an abandonment of AI, AI becoming a dirty word and everyone pivoting away from that branding (See: Web3.0), total loss of interest in AI in the venture capital space, this is a non-extensive list of things that would contribute to me considering the bubble popped.
- If, however, AI slowly fades into the background of everyone’s lives, with no significant evaluation adjustments associated with it failing in prominence, would not constitute a bubble popping (see also: the smartphone/app boom of the early to mid 2010s, no one gives a shit about apps any more, they are not cool, they are not the next big thing, but the hype died quietly and gracefully, and they just became a ubiquitous part of billions of people’s lives)
- If the market is still going strong in 2030, I will resolve this to no pop, otherwise, I’ll keep adding new options as required until then.
- Update: 2025-10-16:
- We already have naysayers claiming a hot startup from a couple months ago is dead, on account of them having made a lot of noise, but having a non-functional product they cannot maintain
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Other mit 84% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop? entschieden?
- [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Trigger for the market popping will be based on my subjective experience as a consultant dealing with tech start-ups and established businesses every day.