Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Before 2027-01-01 96.3%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+8.3 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert31. Aug. 26, 14:57 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date
Manifold MarketsWill Mistral AI release a model named "le chaton fat" by EOY 2026
Manifold MarketsWhen will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
KalshiGTA VI Online: Release date
KalshiClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The '+' means any version at or above 5.4 counts: if Z.ai skips 5.4 and releases GLM 5.5 or GLM 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called GLM 5.4, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket — Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...? · October 31 30%
