Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseSome current (2025) occupations, though, will no longer exist. 89.5%Führend unter 9 Optionen
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet4. Juli 25, 14:01 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?
Manifold MarketsGary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions
Manifold MarketsWill at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Manifold MarketsWill Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
For his 2024 predictions, his own resolutions are somewhat debatable.
- So I will try to resolve this by "general consensus" of some sort.
- As that is not super well-defined, I will not be betting.
