Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBacklash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. 96.2%Führend unter 6 Optionen
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Veraltet21. Dez. 25, 16:07 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
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PolymarketRegeln
Related to this blog post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
- Resolution criteria:
- If Marcus gives a followup on his predictions, it will resolve to his recap of whether he was right in the blog post.
- If there is no followup blog post, I will ask the #1 AI model on the LMArena whether these were fulfilled, and it will resolve to that.
- If AI chatbots are illegal, non-functional, or otherwise not accessible in the US at EOY 2026, resolves to a poll.
- Will also resolve to a poll if LMArena shuts down.
