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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. KI
  3. First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year
Manifold Markets

First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year

KITechnikYearly4J
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Manifold Markets
2025 0.9%
Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker

5

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 6 Tagen

Veraltet
26. Juli 25, 0:1731. Dez. 30, 23:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

20251%

Regeln

"OpenAI" does not count

Manifold Markets
  • "AI" does not count
  • "GPT-5" would count, even as an amalgam of other models
  • "OpenAI ChatGPT Agent" would count
  • Anything messier than stated here may resolve subjectively

Verwandte Märkte

Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

5575,9 €
Google: 14.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

1933,4 €
Ja: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

984 €
None in 2026: 70%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

479,3 €
Ja: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

439,2 €
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

216,5 €
Ja: 19.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,871.62+2.52%SolanaSOL$65.29+1.89%EthereumETH$1,658.53+1.90%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.76%BNBBNB$596.99+1.87%XRPXRP$1.12+0.73%

Verwandte Nachrichten

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Regeln

"OpenAI" does not count

Manifold Markets
  • "AI" does not count
  • "GPT-5" would count, even as an amalgam of other models
  • "OpenAI ChatGPT Agent" would count
  • Anything messier than stated here may resolve subjectively