🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE)
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:
- 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
- 2nd event: 2% (happens next)
- 100th event: 100% (happens latest)
- If there is only one unresolved answer left, it will be resolved to 100% YES even if that event does not actually happen, since we could we waiting for a very long time.
- If there is a renumbering or new product (eg. the next Civilization game after 6 is named something else) I'll update the answers the best I can in the spirit of the question, a lot will change over 100+ years.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für 🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet President with Green Eyes elected mit 78% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird 🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE) entschieden?
- 🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE) soll am 2. Januar 2120 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird 🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards: