Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85.9%
Prognostiker
36
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
8. Juni 26, 04:35 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028
Manifold Marketscan you just balenciaga it? Before 2028
Manifold MarketsWill "You can just wear a suit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "You Can Just Buy Far-UVC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the revolution be televised?
Manifold MarketsWill a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsRegeln
On jan 1 2027, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’.
- If it turns the movie into a ~full-length balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable to or better than the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes.
- Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed.
- Can pick a movie that doesn't have copyright if need be.
- Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK.
- The resulting video must be about as long as the movie.
