By 2028 will there be another assassination attempt on Donald Trump?
US-PolitikOne-OffSportKriminalität & JustizGolf1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 60.9%
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
13. Sept. 26, 11:12 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will somebody perform an assassination attempt on Mark Zuckerberg before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an assassination attempt on David Baszucki before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]
Manifold MarketsWas the Trump Assassination attempt staged?
Manifold Marketswill trump be assasinated in US?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump finally get sentenced to the Big House (or worse) after he leaves office in 2029?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is another confirmed, deliberate assassination attempt on Donald Trump occurring between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, an event must meet the following criteria:
- Target and Intent: The act must be a physical, deliberate attempt to take the life of Donald Trump.
- Lethal Means: The attempt must involve a weapon or method capable of causing death (e.g., firearms, explosives, poisoning, or direct physical assault).
- Official Characterization: The incident must be officially characterized as an "assassination attempt" or "attempted assassination" by a major U.S. federal or state law enforcement agency (such as the FBI, U.S. Secret Service, or Department of Justice), or result in federal charges explicitly for the attempted assassination of Donald Trump (e.g., under 18 U.S. Code § 1751).
