Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 61.9%
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet1. Juli 25, 22:35 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war?
Manifold MarketsWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurWill China intervene and offer Iran nuclear power plants, ending the war, in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Germany have nuclear power again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, the cumulative nameplate capacity of binding power purchase agreements (PPAs) for nuclear electricity explicitly linked to AI data center operations reaches or exceeds 15 gigawatts (GW).
- To qualify, an agreement must:
- Be legally binding, not a memorandum of understanding (MoU) or letter of intent (LOI).
- Involve named counterparties, with at least one party identified as a cloud provider, AI lab, or hyperscaler.
- Explicitly cite AI, cloud computing, or data centers as the intended energy use.
