Aktuelle Community-Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet3. März 26, 05:35 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
Publicly available: Must be available to normal users (paid ok) at some point before 2027.
- General purpose: This is based on advertising and positioning of the model.
- GPT-5.3-Codex would not count because it's positioned as a Codex-specific model, as evidenced by its exclusive availability within Codex.
- GPT-5.2 would count.
- In general if the model is released within a chatbot, that's sufficient to make it general purpose.
- Major AI Labs: For this market, this list includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, and DeepSeek.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 225.903,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 156.962,9 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 348.290,1 €
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 64% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 entschieden?
- A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Publicly available: Must be available to normal users (paid ok) at some point before 2027.