Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose1.5<GTE<2, wheat > $7/bushel 25.2%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet30. Juni 23, 02:38 UTC1. Jan. 51, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
Some climate doomers think it will cause mass starvation.
- Consider this market a tax on that bullshit.
- Resolution prices will come from the last trading day of 2050.
- Wheat price is adjusted for inflation.
- Data source for wheat (quoted in US cents per bushel) https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ZWW00:CBOT?sa=X&window=MAX Data source for GTA (1951-1980 baseline) (called GTE in the options because of a typo) we'll use a 3-year rolling average of NASA data to make it less noisy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record Data source for inflation adjustment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL Wheat price in 2050 is multiplied by CPI_2023/CPI_2050 to convert to 2023 dollars.
