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Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min 100%Führend unter 135 Optionen
Prognostiker
360
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 45 Minuten
Verzogert22. Mai 25, 19:43 UTC30. Sept. 26, 22:36 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Improve my game 🏊 [ADD OPTIONS]
Manifold Markets✨ Improve my life? ✨ [ADD OPTIONS]
Manifold MarketsSeptember 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props (add options)
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will it rain on Sep 21, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 21, 2026?
KalshiRegeln
If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO
- If the change is distinguishable AND is better, resolves YES
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does not greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves NO
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves YES
- If I determine the change is too difficult (I have my own mill but sifting by hand could be maybe too tedious?, stuff like grow my own wheat), I am liable to resolve that option N/A
- If I determine the change departs too far from the categories "bread" or "loaf of bread" (such as suggesting I make a bread bowl with split pea soup😋 or a BLT 😋 or cinnamon rolls 😋), resolves N/A
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.416,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 156.321,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 26.110,1 €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min mit 100% (Stand: 21. September 2026).
- Wann wird 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] entschieden?
- 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] soll am 30. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO