KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Democratic by 9.0% or more 19.3%Führend unter 20 OptionenMargenbereinigt: Die Rohquoten summierten sich auf über 100 % und wurden normalisiert.
Marktqualitat
64 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
693,5 €
Liquidität
33.658,8 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
3.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
20. Mai 26, 18:00 UTC6. Mai 29, 15:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
PolymarketHow much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich Party will win the House popular vote in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:United States Congress
- The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress.
- If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used.
- If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used.
- Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
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- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für 2028 popular vote margin of victory??
- Kalshi bewertet Democratic by 9.0% or more mit 19% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird 2028 popular vote margin of victory? entschieden?
- 2028 popular vote margin of victory? soll am 6. Mai 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird 2028 popular vote margin of victory? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.