KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitRobert F. Kennedy Jr. 31%+2.0ptFührend unter 21 Optionen
Marktqualitat
61 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
992,8 €
Liquidität
53.022,5 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
11.0% / 15.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 26 Minuten
22. Mai 26, 18:0020. Jan. 29, 15:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Pete Hegseth15%
Plattformen vergleichen· Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt80% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 34% | +3pt | 1510,6 € | 195.515,5 € | vor 6 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| KalshiDiese Seite | Mittel | 31% | 0pt | 992,8 € | 53.022,5 € | vor 26 Minuten |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
3.1 pts5Mon
+0.7pt40.5%
+3.1pt29.3%
+8.2pt7.8%
+26 weitere Ergebnisse
69 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen23.584,5 €
24h-Volumen1510,6 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If Marco Rubio is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position.
- For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
- Acting roles are not included.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$1.1k2. Juli26T Daten27. Juli
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If Marco Rubio is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position.
- For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
- Acting roles are not included.