KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertMittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Preis
Before Jan 1, 2029 32%Führend unter 3 Optionen
Before Jan 1, 2029 32%Marktqualitat
24 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
4,9 €
Open Interest
1434,7 $
Niedriges Open InterestGeld / Brief
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Before Jan 1, 2029Spread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 48 Minuten
Verzogert23. Sept. 26, 23:30 UTC1. Jan. 29, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · Before Jan 1, 2029
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsEpstein files prop bets (ADD YOURS)
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or the White House qualifies for this market, including Trump’s official Truth Social account and the White House Cabinet page. Reports that merely reference publications from before Issuance do not qualify unless the new publication explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of its publication date. Republishing another source’s content qualifies only if hosted on the outlet’s official platform with that outlet identified as publisher. A position is considered Cabinet-level if the President or White House formally designates its holder as a member of the Cabinet or as holding Cabinet rank. Merely attending Cabinet meetings, advising the President, holding the title “Assistant to the President,” or leading an office within the Executive Office of the President does not by itself qualify. The person must have assumed the position; an announced intention to appoint someone does not qualify. Artificial intelligence must be a primary and distinct responsibility of the position. Officials whose responsibilities include AI only as part of a broader portfolio covering science, technology, economic policy, national security, or another policy area do not qualify. The Cabinet-level designation must belong to the AI position itself: an official who holds Cabinet rank through another office and is additionally assigned AI responsibilities qualifies only if the White House formally designates that AI role as Cabinet-level. A Secretary of Artificial Intelligence, a Cabinet-rank AI czar, or the head of a newly created Cabinet-level department or agency primarily responsible for artificial intelligence would qualify.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
