Will Brazil's federal government meet its primary fiscal surplus target in 2026?
WirtschaftOne-OffLateinamerika2Mon
FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 56%
Nein 56%Marktqualitat
32 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
897 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
8
Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin?
KalshiU.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026
Manifold MarketsWhen in 2026 will US federal government present a new narrative, with documentation, regarding UAP/UFO events?
Manifold MarketsWill there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?
Manifold MarketsWill the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsMexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market refers exclusively to the primary result — that is, government revenues minus expenditures before the payment of interest on public debt.
- It does not refer to the nominal fiscal result, which includes interest payments.
- The official target defined in Brazil’s 2026 Annual Budget Law (LOA 2026) is a primary surplus of 0.25% of GDP (approximately R$34.5 billion), with a tolerance band of ±0.25 percentage points of GDP.
- Therefore, for this market, the target will be considered met if the primary result is ≥ 0.00% of GDP (i.e., if it is above the lower bound of the tolerance band).
- If Brazil’s central government achieves a positive primary surplus (greater than 0.00% of GDP) for the 2026 calendar year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Resolution will be based on the official consolidated primary result of the Central Government, as initially published by the National Treasury in its annual fiscal report.