Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
26 Eki 2026 07:03 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiHayır 97.3%
Tahminciler
32
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Şub 26 19:36 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
will world war 3 start before GTA Vi?
Manifold MarketsWill a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill post-WWII international orders die before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
Manifold MarketsIf China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if a third global conflict meeting the definition of World War III begins before Grand Theft Auto VI releases on Thursday, November 19, 2026.
- For resolution purposes, World War III is defined as a hypothetical, catastrophic global conflict involving major powers and widespread military engagement across multiple continents.
- The conflict must be formally declared or widely recognized by international media and governments as constituting a third world war.
- Proxy wars, regional conflicts, cyberattacks, or terrorism alone do not qualify.
- The market resolves NO if November 19, 2026 passes without such a conflict beginning.
