Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
25 Eki 2026 21:52 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiHayır 97.3%
Tahminciler
32
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
3 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Şub 26 19:36 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
will world war 3 start before GTA Vi?
Manifold MarketsIf China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)
Manifold MarketsWho will win the clash of civilizations.
Manifold MarketsWill a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill post-WWII international orders die before 2050?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if a third global conflict meeting the definition of World War III begins before Grand Theft Auto VI releases on Thursday, November 19, 2026.
- For resolution purposes, World War III is defined as a hypothetical, catastrophic global conflict involving major powers and widespread military engagement across multiple continents.
- The conflict must be formally declared or widely recognized by international media and governments as constituting a third world war.
- Proxy wars, regional conflicts, cyberattacks, or terrorism alone do not qualify.
- The market resolves NO if November 19, 2026 passes without such a conflict beginning.
