Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
JeopolitikOne-OffRusya / UkraynaÇinLatin AmerikaOrta DoğuSağlık ve Tıp3y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 68.5%
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
36 dakika önce güncellendi
1 Haz 23 06:33 UTC1 Oca 30 08:00 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia breach a nuclear reactor in Ukraine resulting in a radiation release of >10^-4 chernobyls
Manifold MarketsIf the Mises Caucus loses control of the Libertarian Party, will the resulting faction be pro Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
As of 2023, global conflict hotspots include areas such as Taiwan due to China's aggression, Ukraine due to escalating conflict, Russia due to growing civil unrest, and regions involving North Korea, Israel, and Iran due to their respective nuclear programs.
- Additionally, migration surges to the U.S. from Central America and Mexico due to increased violence and acute weather events have heightened tensions.
- The potential for these conflicts to escalate into war with substantial casualties is a pressing concern for global security.
- Before January 1st, 2030, will a war occur anywhere in the world that results in the death of over one million people?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2030, credible sources confirm that a war has occurred in any region of the world resulting in the death of over one million people within one year.
