If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Evet 59.1%

Tahminciler

Soru türü

binary

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

1 saat önce güncellendi

Gecikmeli

2 Ara 25 19:02 UTC30 Ara 35 18:53 UTC

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Kurallar

This is the same as https://manifold.markets/Pepe/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-manifo but 30% didn't seem high enough.

The goal of this question is to see if I would have enough warning to buy a plane ticket out.
[link preview]We will examine the most traded Manifold market about China invading Taiwan with a deadline of at most 6 months.
If 3 days before an invasion (or a blockade of flights!) that market says at least 35% then this question resolves YES.
In addition, I will do the same thing for the most traded market about an aerial blockade.
If both markets are below the threshold, this resolves NO.

Açık piyasalar