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Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?
Manifold MarketsKessler Syndrome before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?
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This resolves YES if we have experienced Kessler syndrome by the end of 2052.
- Some signs that Kessler syndome has occurred:
- The collisions are cascading, i.e. it's not just debris from one collision that disables other satellites, but debris from those collisions must themselves result in debris that disables other satellites.
- A short timescale: If the rate of destruction of satellites spikes over the course of a few days or weeks, I'm inclined to call that Kessler syndrome.
- If it goes up over the course of years, I'm inclined to say that the space community is simply more tolerant of accepting losses due to chance and a higher debris environment.
- There is damage to space infrastructure: If 50% of satellites launched after 2020 cannot be deorbited before they are destroyed, or are forced to deorbit early, that suggests Kessler syndrome.