Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 91.8%
Hayır 91.8%Tahminciler
30
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
19 dakika önce güncellendi
5 Eki 22 21:01 UTC1 Oca 28 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?
Manifold MarketsWill there be Kessler Syndrome before 2053?
Manifold MarketsWill Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketKurallar
This resolves YES if we have experienced Kessler syndrome before the close date.
- Kessler syndrome is a scenario where collisions between objects and satellites in low earth orbit generate debris which then collides with more satellites.
- I'd like to exercise discretion in resolving this, so I will avoid betting in this market myself.
- Here are a few factors I might find important.
- Whether the collisions are cascading, i.e. it's not just debris from one collision that disables other satellites, but debris from those collisions must themselves result in debris that disables other satellites.
- Timescale: If the rate of destruction of satellites spikes over the course of a few days or weeks, I'm inclined to call that Kessler syndrome.