Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 69.6%
Tahminciler
6
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Nis 26 21:36 UTC31 Ara 45 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be Kessler Syndrome before 2053?
Manifold MarketsKessler Syndrome before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIf Elon goes to space within his lifetime, will he go past Low Earth Orbit?
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PolymarketTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
This market resolves YES if all of the following occur before January 1, 2046:
- A collision between two objects in Low Earth Orbit (below 2,000 km altitude) produces 500 or more newly tracked debris objects, as reported by US Space Command or ESA's Space Debris Office.
- Within 24 months of that collision, at least one additional unplanned satellite or debris collision is formally attributed — by a government space agency or peer-reviewed publication — to debris generated by the triggering event.
- A major space agency (NASA, ESA, JAXA, or Roscosmos) or the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs publicly states that the cascade poses an ongoing uncontrolled risk to that orbital shell.
- All three criteria must be met.
- A single large collision with no follow-on cascade does not resolve YES.
