Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 61.8%
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11
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli16 Tem 24 19:45 UTC31 Ara 26 18:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolves according to Wikipedia article.
- Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that:
- A mention of the eruption in the volcano's own Wikipedia article is sufficient.
- The Wikipedia page "List of volcanic eruptions in the 21st century" is also a key source, as such eruptions are typically listed there.
Açık piyasalar
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+1.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-29.5pt48%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4,4 Mn
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027-0.1pt5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,2 Mn
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺91,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺160,1 B
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 62% fiyatlıyor.
- Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves according to Wikipedia article.