Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
SporOne-OffSatrançPolitikaToplum ve Kültür1y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 82%
Hayır 82%Tahminciler
120
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
10 dakika önce güncellendi
9 Oca 23 19:12 UTC1 Oca 28 07:59 UTC
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Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
