Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 85%
Tahminciler
23
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis21 Ara 25 03:19 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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KalshiKurallar
[image]https://x.com/colin_fraser/status/2002562599846883694
- Resolves according to statements from Colin, or if he makes none or seems to have succumbed to LLM psychosis himself, my own judgement.
- Broadly interpreted, so e.g. any AI chatbot will count, doesn't have to be ChatGPT.
- There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No84.2%
- Yes15.8%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺15,4 Mn
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-0.5pt78.8%
- New People (NL)+0.1pt17.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.5pt67%
- October 31+3.5pt41%
- September 30+10.5pt30%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt26%
- October 31-2.0pt20%
- September 30-4.5pt9%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- October 31+20.5pt68%
- September 30+19.0pt48%
- September 21+24.0pt47%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+7.0pt92%
- September 18+8.5pt89%
- September 4+13.0pt87%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 12 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 85% fiyatlıyor.
- LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: [image]https://x.com/colin_fraser/status/2002562599846883694