Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
5.7 pts (24h)One-OffPolíticaEuropeCrime & JusticeEleição
PolymarketFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Yes
Resolvido: 9 de jul. de 2026, 03:35
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Resultado Vencedor
Yes
A 7 dias
20%
A 24 horas
94%
ConsensoProbabilidade implícita atual
Sim 100%+0.1pt
Qualidade do mercado
45 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
2,9 mil €
Liquidez
—
Liquidez desconhecidaCompra / Venda
97.6% / 100.0%
Spread
2.4 pt
Spread moderadoVariação 7d
+80.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 53 dias
Desatualizado19/01/26, 20:2131/03/26, 0:00
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Regras
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race.
- The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12.
- You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings.
